ACC
Miami is in a lot more trouble than people realize. The home loss to UNC and Florida State leaves the Hurricanes at 3-9 against the top-100. I know they beat Duke, but so did Virginia Tech last year and the Hokies had a far superior top-100 record (8-7) and got the shaft. Their other two “quality wins” are Umass and Maryland, both at home. Uh-oh. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
NC State? Same problem. They blew a huge lead at Duke, but still have UNC and Miami coming to town to make a statement of sorts.
And could it be…Virginia Tech I see on the Bubble horizon? Just 4-8 in league play, the Hokies have a chance to earn a sweep of Virginia and get a shot vs. NC State to close out the season. A couple quality wins in the league tourney and – you never know. They would put their fans through that torture, wouldn’t they?
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State
Near Locks: None
Bubble: NC State (18-9, 7-5 RPI 60); Miami (16-8, 7-5 RPI 46)
Treading Water: None
Atlantic 10
We are starting to like Xavier’s chances more and more. Wins vs. Purdue, at Vanderbilt and vs. Cincinnati are quality, even though they haven’t exactly done much in league play. If they can win at UMass and St. Louis and take care of business at home, they will be in great shape.
St. Louis is nearly locked up, barring a complete meltdown prior to the A-10 tournament.
Dayton is still breathing because of some good wins. I know they have some horrific losses, but quality wins keeps them in the conversation for now.
I’m not on the St. Joe’s bandwagon as much as some (ahem-LUNARDI), but we will throw them on the Bubble for a look. Losses to Penn, American, and Charlotte and wins over Creighton (good) and Drexel (okay). Let’s just say they HAVE to beat Temple to stand a chance.
Locks: Temple
Near Locks: St. Louis (21-5, 10-3 RPI 22)
Bubble: Xavier (17-9, 8-4 RPI 53); St. Joseph’s (18-10, 8-5 RPI 47)
Treading Water: Dayton (16-10, 6-6 RPI 74)
Big East
Notre Dame is locked up. 11 Big East wins is enough to send them to the Dance regardless of what happens from here on out.
We are moving South Florida up to the Bubble for a look, but come on dude – their best work is a sweep of Pittsburgh, and they have three sub-100 losses. Let’s see how they deal with their tough closing stretch in the league.
Unfortunately, I think 9-9 gets UConn into the Dance. That blows.
The same goes for West Virginia, who sport a pretty nice 9-9 top-100 record and a 4-6 top-50 record is good for a bubble team.
Seton Hall’s mission is simple: beat Georgetown. Otherwise, the gaudy RPI may not mean much since their last quality win came almost seven weeks ago.
Cincinnati’s computer numbers suck, but at least they have wins over Notre Dame, Georgetown, UConn and Seton Hall. Too bad the losses to Presbyterian, St. John’s and Rutgers pretty much cancel those out.
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Connecticut (17-10, 7-8 RPI 27); West Virginia (16-10, 6-7 RPI 41); Seton Hall (18-9, 7-8 RPI 34); South Florida (16-10, 10-4 RPI 50); Cincinnati (19-8, 9-5 RPI 82)
Treading Water: None
Big Ten
Holy fuck is that Northwestern on the Bubble? What are they doing there? They are there because everyone else sucks equally. 5-10 vs. the top-100 (although with no bad losses! Yay!)? Not too good. Beat Michigan and Ohio State and maybe they have a chance, otherwise it will be another Danceless year in Evanston.
Purdue remains in good shape, with 5 top-50 wins (3 coming out of conference) and two Big Ten bottom-feeders coming to Lafayette. Steal a win at Michigan or Indiana and they can pretty much put on their dancing shoes.
Locks: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Purdue (17-10, 7-7 RPI 52); Northwestern (16-10, 6-8 RPI 43)
Treading Water: None
Big 12
Gigantic win for Kansas State at Baylor. If they reel off three of their last four in league play, they should be good to go.
Texas? Not so much. They really needed that win against Baylor. A trip to Kansas is their last chance to impress in the regular season. Lose that, and it will be a tense conference tournament.
Dig deep into the profile and Iowa State is hurting. Three top-100 wins (one vs. Kansas is great) and two sub-100 losses. A closing stretch of at K-State, at Missouri and vs. Baylor will decide their status.
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Locks: Missouri, Baylor, Kansas
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Kansas State (18-8, 7-7 RPI 49); Iowa State (19-8, 9-5 RPI 41); Texas (17-11, 7-8 RPI 51)
Treading Water: None
Conference USA
Southern Miss has one good win (Memphis), a bunch of OK wins, and two horrific losses (at UAB and at Houston). Back to the Bubble they go.
Apparently shitty losses were contagious this week in Conference USA, because Memphis dropped a home game to UTEP. Ouch.
I know UCF beat UConn and Memphis, but there’s chance both miss the Dance. How does the profile look then? Not too good.
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Southern Miss (20-5, 9-3 RPI 10); Memphis (19-8, 9-3 RPI 25)
Treading Water: UCF (17-7, 8-4 RPI 54)
Missouri Valley
Creighton’s win over Long Beach State locks them up.
Locks: Wichita State, Creighton
Near Locks: None
Bubble: None
Treading Water: None
Mountain West
Three straight losses unlocks San Diego State, but they are home wins against Wyoming and Colorado State away from being locked up again.
I think if Colorado State lost to my grandmother they would jump five places in the RPI.
Locks: UNLV, New Mexico
Near Locks: San Diego State (18-6, 6-4 RPI 33)
Bubble: Colorado State (15-9, 5-5 RPI 29)
Treading Water: None
PAC-12
Ok, we are moving Cal to the Near-Lock category for now. A regular-season championship of Big Six conference will get you in the door, deservedly or not. Two years ago they sucked worse and the league sucked worse than this year and they still got in.
I’m not even going to attempt to sort out the rest. Washington is Bubble-worthy as conference co-leader, but as of now the rest are undeserving of serious consideration.
Locks: None
Near Locks: California (22-6, 12-3 RPI 30)
Bubble: Washington (19-8, 12-3 RPI 56)
Treading Water: Colorado (16-8, 10-4 RPI 77); Arizona (19-9, 10-5 RPI 67); Oregon (19-8, 10-5 RPI 55)
SEC
Alabama is in decent shape, but need a split of their last four SEC games.
It is uh-oh time in Starkville, where Mississippi State has lost three straight and have Kentucky coming to town. A trip to Alabama follows. They better hope to also get to 8-8 in the league to avoid sweating out Selection Sunday.
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Mississippi State (19-8, 6-6 RPI 59); Alabama (17-9, 6-6 RPI 36)
Treading Water: LSU (16-10, 6-6 RPI 65)
West Coast
St. Mary’s is still fine. No bad losses = at-large, and deservedly so for the Gaels.
BYU keeps chugging along in the at-large picture, looking pretty solidly in the field right now. They can afford a loss at Gonzaga, but probably not to Santa Clara or Portland.
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Near Locks: None
Bubble: BYU (21-6, 11-3 RPI 48)
Treading Water: None
Others
Harvard is on the verge of winning the Ivy’s automatic bid, so their place on the Bubble may be short-lived.
Oral Roberts and Middle Tennessee State, should they win out until the conference finals, both will be interesting at-large cases. If it comes down to the two, Oral Roberts convincing win at short-handed Xavier may the difference.
Long Beach State fell at Creighton, but is still alive in the at-large discussion. At a minimum they have to win out until the conference finals.
Same goes for Drexel, who despite a 14 game winning streak, is being heavily weighed down by 3 sub-100 losses.
Iona makes a jump to the Bubble, but we aren’t sure they can overcome their bad losses.
Locks: Murray State
Near Locks: Harvard (22-3, 9-1 Ivy RPI 31)
Bubble: Oral Roberts (25-5, 16-1 Summit RPI 45); Long Beach State (17-7, 12-0 Big West RPI 42); Middle Tennessee State (23-4, 13-1 Sun Belt RPI 37); Drexel (22-5, 14-2 RPI 86); Iona (22-6, 13-3 MAAC RPI 44)
Treading Water: VCU (22-6, 13-3 RPI 80); Belmont (20-7, 13-2 RPI 70); George Mason (23-6, 14-2 RPI 83); Nevada (20-5, 10-1 WAC RPI 58)
